Still in the Range

I'm going out on a three day limb here. Anything or nothing can break the market out of this trading range (see previous post.) It could be bad news, good news (unlikely) or no news. But, I have a guess and it's a pure guess. On November 5th the market is going to react to the election and that is what it's waiting for. If Obama wins we break to the upside and if McCain wins we go down. Why? For eight years we have had a president who is disengaged and knows little about economic policy. All the decisions are left to competing forces within the administration. McCain by his own admission knows little about economic matters. In normal times, a president does not need to be and cannot be an expert on all matters that come across his desk but we are not in normal times. I think the market will react positively to Obama as president because he does care about economic policy and he will be engaged in the issues. More importantly he will bring new people in with new thinking. McCain will be stuck relying on the same people that Bush has relied on. For the first time more money from Wall Street went to a democratic candidate (read here) than to a republican one. That says something.